Everyone seems to be running for the exits! In the first six months of 2021 we have lost over 10% of our portfolio. No, it’s not because we are that bad! (lol) We’ve never even lost half the number in a full year! So what’s the rush? Everyone is trying to take advantage of a super-hot real estate market, and sell at or near the top.
Sadly, I think they are making the wrong decision, and leaving a LOT on the table for the buyers. Yep, you heard me. I think it is a BUYER’s market. Here’s my thinking:
After WWII, Los Angeles saw a huge run up in real estate during the 50s, 60s, and 70s as people flocked to the Golden State for sunshine. During the 80s and 90s this little place called San Jose became the hotbed of Silicon Valley and the San Francisoco Bay Area took off and never looked back. China took over Hong Kong in 1997, and that caused a huge land rush in Vancouver, B.C. for the next 20 years.
The big implosion of 2008-2009 saw real estate take a big correction up and down the west coast. When the dust settled it became clear to everyone that Seattle and Portland were selling at huge discounts to the other marjor markets along the west coast. What happened in those other cities is now happening in the Seattle and Portland markets in the 2010s and 2020s.
To wit, the average prices of homes in those markets as listed by National Association of Realtors are:
- Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale – $682,400
- Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine – $1,000,000
- San Franciso-Oakland-Hayward – $1,200,000
- Vancouver, BC – $1,034,020 USD* (varies due to exchange rate)
- Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue- $653,400
- Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro – $489,100
While looking up these numbers I was surprised L.A. was so low. Maybe I’ll move down there. Oh wait. The smog and taxes. I’ll pass! You can quickly see that Seattle/Portland sell at a very large discount to the other metropolitan markets on the west coast.. As housing affordability becomes a bigger issue, people will be scrambling to the cities they can afford to buy in.
We expect Seattle/Portland will continue to rise in value for another 30-40% in value. That will put the median price in Seattle between $850,000 – 910,000, and in Portland between $630,000 – $685,000.
But the real reason not to sell is explained in video #8 in our Video Center. Check it out. If you are not excited about rental property after viewing that video then definitely sell!